Os Céticos

Um Tributo às Afirmações Ousadas

Propomos uma heurística global e moralmente obrigatória em que qualquer um envolvido em uma ação que possa possivelmente gerar dano a outros, mesmo probabilisticamente, deve também estar exposto a algum dano, independente de contexto.
N.N. Taleb & C. Sandis, “The Skin in the Game Heuristic for Protection Against Tail Events”

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22 de abril de 2011 • $1.40

Niels van der Linden

Amateur economist, VforVoluntary.com

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$4,844.00
Saldo BTC
112.51494252
Valor atual
$7,394,713.94
Mudança percentual
152,557.18%

Link do arquivo

8 de maio de 2011 • $3.85

Avery Pennarun

Software engineer

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$4,828.00
Saldo BTC
105.75032042
Valor atual
$6,950,129.03
Mudança percentual
143,854.62%
See, a bitcoin rant is almost too over-the-top for me. Asking why I think bitcoin won't work is like asking why the sky isn't red. I mean, wait, you think it is red? You actually took that seriously? Oh boy. Where do I even start?

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20 de junho de 2011 • $17.51

Tim Worstall

Journalist

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$4,785.00
Saldo BTC
101.05538242
Valor atual
$6,641,568.03
Mudança percentual
138,699.75%
It’s difficult to see what the currency has going for it.

Link do arquivo

20 de junho de 2011 • $17.51

Peter Schiff

CEO, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$4,785.00
Saldo BTC
101.05538242
Valor atual
$6,641,568.03
Mudança percentual
138,699.75%
What [bitcoins] lack is their own fundamental intrinsic value. You can’t do anything with a bitcoin, other than trade it for something you want. So, intrinsically, the bitcoin itself has no value. It only has value as a medium of exchange so long as people are willing to accept it.

9 de agosto de 2011 • $9.80

Adrian Covert

Journalist

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$4,735.00
Saldo BTC
97.34580645
Valor atual
$6,397,767.05
Mudança percentual
135,016.52%
The lulz were abundant. But frankly, it’s time for you to go. Farewell.

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7 de setembro de 2011 • $7.16

Paul Krugman

Nobel Prize-winning Economist

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$4,706.00
Saldo BTC
94.28248331
Valor atual
$6,196,439.14
Mudança percentual
131,571.04%
So to the extent that the [Bitcoin] experiment tells us anything about monetary regimes, it reinforces the case against anything like a new gold standard – because it shows just how vulnerable such a standard would be to money-hoarding, deflation, and depression.

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24 de dezembro de 2012 • $13.43

Michael Calore

Journalist

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$4,232.00
Saldo BTC
9.52851594
Valor atual
$626,233.71
Mudança percentual
14,697.58%
Then came the malware, the black market, the legal ambiguities and The Man. Today, you can't even use it to buy Facebook stock

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5 de março de 2013 • $40.67

Patrik Korda

Amateur trader

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$4,161.00
Saldo BTC
5.69912696
Valor atual
$374,558.37
Mudança percentual
8,901.64%
Thus, we have an answer before us: bitcoins are fiduciary media, or more specifically token money. From a monetary standpoint, as devised and formulated by Ludwig von Mises, they are on a par with the stuff you find at Chuck E. Cheese's.

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3 de abril de 2013 • $131.38

Heidi Moore

Finance and Economics Editor, The Guardian US

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$4,132.00
Saldo BTC
5.20281287
Valor atual
$341,939.59
Mudança percentual
8,175.40%
Of course, in a rational world, none of that will be written, except perhaps as satire. Bitcoin's crash is less of a currency crisis than an opportune moment for internet wisecracks.

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9 de abril de 2013 • $230.68

Kurt Eichenwald

Contributing editor, Vanity Fair

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$4,126.00
Saldo BTC
5.16217615
Valor atual
$339,268.86
Mudança percentual
8,122.71%
So, anyone out there buying Bitcoins at ridiculously inflated prices, please recognize the risk you are taking. You will likely lose everything.

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11 de abril de 2013 • $82.90

Justin Wolfers

Economist, Brookings Institution

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$4,124.00
Saldo BTC
5.15163745
Valor atual
$338,576.23
Mudança percentual
8,109.90%

10 de maio de 2013 • $117.69

Robert McMillan

Journalist

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$4,095.00
Saldo BTC
4.89077102
Valor atual
$321,431.55
Mudança percentual
7,749.37%
But in the end, the answer was obvious. The world’s most popular digital currency really is nothing more than an abstraction. So we’re destroying the private key used by our Bitcon wallet.

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14 de maio de 2013 • $107.87

Ian Bremmer

Founder and President, Eurasia Group

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$4,091.00
Saldo BTC
4.85639430
Valor atual
$319,172.24
Mudança percentual
7,701.81%
"I would be very surprised if Bitcoin is still around in 10 years," said Bremmer, the founder and CEO of Eurasia Group, the world's largest risk consulting firm. He thinks that bigger players will enter the field and improve upon Bitcoin's weaknesses.

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16 de outubro de 2013 • $138.33

David S. Evans

Chairman of the Global Economics Group

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,936.00
Saldo BTC
3.39128379
Valor atual
$222,882.16
Mudança percentual
5,562.66%
I think there are two realistic directions the bitcoin ecosystem could go in. First, it could just implode and disappear if governments decide that virtual currencies cause too much harm and are too hard to regulate. Long-term investments in bitcoin would then go up in smoke. Second, it could continue as a virtual currency that is only used on the dark web with exchanges that are run by people willing to break the laws. The value of bitcoin would decline to whatever the illegal sector could support; regular investors wouldn’t be able to get their value from bitcoin unless they cashed it in with someone who wanted to do bad things.

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3 de novembro de 2013 • $210.28

Emin Gün Sirer

Professor, Cornell University

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,918.00
Saldo BTC
3.29181697
Valor atual
$216,345.00
Mudança percentual
5,421.82%

6 de novembro de 2013 • $263.21

Joseph Weisenthal

Executive Editor, Business Insider

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,915.00
Saldo BTC
3.27858611
Valor atual
$215,475.44
Mudança percentual
5,403.84%
Bitcoin? Nada. There's nothing keeping it being a thing. If people lose faith in it, it's over. Bitcoin is fiat currency in the most literal sense of the word.

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8 de novembro de 2013 • $333.75

Kevin Rose

Co-founder, Digg

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,913.00
Saldo BTC
3.27134006
Valor atual
$214,999.21
Mudança percentual
5,394.49%

21 de novembro de 2013 • $720.76

Matthew O'Brien

Journalist

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,900.00
Saldo BTC
3.23976570
Valor atual
$212,924.08
Mudança percentual
5,359.59%
In other words, Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme libertarians use to make money off each other—because gold wasn't enough of one for them.

Link do arquivo

29 de novembro de 2013 • $1,128.73

Gary North

Economist

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,892.00
Saldo BTC
3.23034740
Valor atual
$212,305.09
Mudança percentual
5,354.91%
Bitcoins will never achieve this. It is a mania going up. It will be a mania coming down. It will not increase the division of labor, because people will recognize it as having been a Ponzi scheme, and they will not again buy it. They will not use it in exchange. Companies will not sell goods and services based on Bitcoins. Bitcoins have to have stable purchasing power if they are to serve as money, and they will never, ever achieve stable purchasing power.

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2 de dezembro de 2013 • $1,040.81

Matthew Yglesias

Executive Editor, Vox

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,889.00
Saldo BTC
3.22753120
Valor atual
$212,120.00
Mudança percentual
5,354.36%
My primary interest in Bitcoin is that I think it's a great platform for making jokes.

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5 de dezembro de 2013 • $1,027.41

Mark T. Williams

Finance Professor, Boston University

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,886.00
Saldo BTC
3.22474019
Valor atual
$211,936.57
Mudança percentual
5,353.85%
Once sellers outnumber buyers, prices will eventually drop below $10, erasing all gains. This price collapse will occur by the first half of 2014.

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18 de dezembro de 2013 • $526.12

Edward Hadas

Economics Editor, Reuters

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,873.00
Saldo BTC
3.20902294
Valor atual
$210,903.60
Mudança percentual
5,345.48%
The electronic pseudocurrency has had a good run. Ideologues, speculators and scammers enjoyed the fun while it lasted. But now that the authorities are taking notice, the price has much further to fall.

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18 de dezembro de 2013 • $526.12

Alex Payne

Developer and Angel Investor

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,873.00
Saldo BTC
3.20902294
Valor atual
$210,903.60
Mudança percentual
5,345.48%
Bitcoin represents more of the same short-sighted hypercapitalism that got us into this mess, minus the accountability.

Link do arquivo

18 de dezembro de 2013 • $526.12

Charlie Stross

Author

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,873.00
Saldo BTC
3.20902294
Valor atual
$210,903.60
Mudança percentual
5,345.48%
TL:DR; the current banking industry and late-period capitalism may suck, but replacing it with Bitcoin would be like swapping out a hangnail for Fournier's gangrene.

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28 de dezembro de 2013 • $715.85

Brad DeLong

Professor of Economics, U.C. Berkeley

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,863.00
Saldo BTC
3.19344810
Valor atual
$209,879.99
Mudança percentual
5,333.08%
You can either work doing something useful, or you can set up a botnet to mine BitCoins, or you can fork the code behind BitCoin and set up your own slightly-tweaked virtual cryptographic money network. Setting up a new, alternative network is really cheap. Thus unless BitCoin going can somehow successfully differentiate itself from the latecomers who are about to emerge, the money supply of BitCoin-like things is infinite because the cost of production of them is infinitesimal.

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15 de janeiro de 2014 • $841.09

Lisa Kramer

"Serious Economist"

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,845.00
Saldo BTC
3.17110882
Valor atual
$208,411.81
Mudança percentual
5,320.33%
As a Serious Economist, I had been happily ignoring the recent bitcoin frenzy, safe in the smug knowledge shared by all Serious Economists that the surge in bitcoin value is a bubble that will soon pop.

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23 de janeiro de 2014 • $810.92

Jamie Dimon

President & CEO, JPMorgan Chase

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,837.00
Saldo BTC
3.16136392
Valor atual
$207,771.35
Mudança percentual
5,314.94%
"It’s a terrible store of value," Mr. Dimon said in an interview with CNBC. "It could be replicated over and over."

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29 de janeiro de 2014 • $793.38

Paul Singer

CEO, Elliott Management Corporation

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,831.00
Saldo BTC
3.15376753
Valor atual
$207,272.10
Mudança percentual
5,310.39%
There is no more reason to believe that bitcoin will stand the test of time than that governments will protect the value of government-created money, although bitcoin is newer and we always look at babies with hope.

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1 de março de 2014 • $567.53

Robert J. Shiller

Nobel Prize-winning Economist

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,800.00
Saldo BTC
3.10690159
Valor atual
$204,191.98
Mudança percentual
5,273.47%
The Bitcoin phenomenon seems to fit the basic definition of a speculative bubble — that is, a special kind of fad, a mania for holding an asset in expectation of its appreciation.

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9 de março de 2014 • $640.58

Mark Cuban

TV Actor, Shark Tank

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,792.00
Saldo BTC
3.09420720
Valor atual
$203,357.67
Mudança percentual
5,262.81%
I think as an encryption technology, [Bitcoin’s] great. I think as a transport mechanism, accounting of a transport mechanism, that it's unique and has a great opportunity in the future. I think it has no shot as a long term digital currency. [Would you buy any?] Yeah, I mean I'd look at it, but more as fun, you know? It's almost like buying and selling baseball cards, but there's definitely risk involved if you're looking at it to be a long term currency.

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9 de março de 2014 • $640.58

Nouriel Roubini

Professor of Economics, New York University

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,792.00
Saldo BTC
3.09420720
Valor atual
$203,357.67
Mudança percentual
5,262.81%

14 de março de 2014 • $628.31

Warren Buffett

Chairman & CEO, Berkshire Hathaway

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,787.00
Saldo BTC
3.08634634
Valor atual
$202,841.04
Mudança percentual
5,256.25%
"Stay away from it," he said, according to a transcript. "It’s a mirage basically."

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14 de outubro de 2015 • $253.14

Anthony Watson & Halsey Minor

CEO and Founder & Chairman, Uphold (formerly Bitreserve), respectively

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,208.00
Saldo BTC
1.27683134
Valor atual
$83,915.99
Mudança percentual
2,515.84%
Watson sounds even more negative on bitcoin. “I’ll be surprised if bitcoin is here in five years,” he has told Fortune. “The value of bitcoin isn’t the currency, but the technology. I think once the world becomes more accustomed and attuned to the platform of bitcoin, the noise will go away, and the currency will go away too.
[…]
Minor, too, predicts that bitcoin as a currency “will get destroyed.” He likens the coin’s current market cap—about $3.7 billion—to “an accounting mistake or rounding error that Bank of America makes.”

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14 de janeiro de 2016 • $429.82

Mike Hearn

Lead Platform Engineer, R3CV

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,116.00
Saldo BTC
1.02322760
Valor atual
$67,248.63
Mudança percentual
2,058.17%
But despite knowing that Bitcoin could fail all along, the now inescapable conclusion that it has failed still saddens me greatly. The fundamentals are broken and whatever happens to the price in the short term, the long term trend should probably be downwards. I will no longer be taking part in Bitcoin development and have sold all my coins.

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19 de janeiro de 2016 • $378.16

Vivek Wadhwa

Contributor, The Washington Post; Tryhard

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$3,111.00
Saldo BTC
1.01039270
Valor atual
$66,405.09
Mudança percentual
2,034.53%
Bitcoin did have great potential, but it is damaged beyond repair. A replacement is badly needed.

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17 de novembro de 2016 • $735.32

Jeremy Allaire

CEO, Circle

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$2,808.00
Saldo BTC
0.42610597
Valor atual
$28,004.56
Mudança percentual
897.31%
“Our view is that we’re still in the really early stages of the technology and its development,” said Allaire. “It’s highly unlikely that any of us will be using Bitcoin in five or ten years. In the same way that — how many of us use NCSA Mosaic or Netscape Navigator?”

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21 de novembro de 2016 • $736.51

Timothy B. Lee

Senior correspondent, technology and economics, Lead writer for "New Money", Vox Media

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$2,804.00
Saldo BTC
0.42071154
Valor atual
$27,650.03
Mudança percentual
886.09%
What went wrong? The Bitcoin community has been hampered by a dysfunctional culture that has grown increasingly hostile toward experimentation. That has made it difficult for the Bitcoin network to keep up with changing market demands...Bitcoin's larger problem may be that it just doesn’t solve any problems normal people have.

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3 de janeiro de 2017 • $1,032.61

Dan McCrum

Editor, Financial Times

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$2,761.00
Saldo BTC
0.36730541
Valor atual
$24,140.07
Mudança percentual
774.32%
As a phenomenon bitcoin has all the attributes of a pyramid scheme, requiring a constant influx of converts to push up the price, based on the promise of its use by future converts. So the ultimate value for bitcoin will be the same as all pyramid schemes: zero.

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2 de junho de 2017 • $2,479.42

Raoul Pal

Macro Strategist, GMI

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$2,611.00
Saldo BTC
0.23914957
Valor atual
$15,717.40
Mudança percentual
501.97%
Bitcoin was supposed to be a store of value, you couldn’t mess with the formula… and now they are talking about a ‘hard fork’ changing it? Even if they don’t change the formula, the fact that they could? That’s enough to say it’s not a long-term store of value.

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26 de julho de 2017 • $2,522.32

Howard Marks

Co-chairman, Oaktree Capital

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$2,557.00
Saldo BTC
0.21779978
Valor atual
$14,314.25
Mudança percentual
459.81%
In my view, digital currencies are nothing but an unfounded fad (or perhaps even a pyramid scheme), based on a willingness to ascribe value to something that has little or none beyond what people will pay for it.

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9 de outubro de 2017 • $4,777.53

Kenneth Rogoff

Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Harvard University; Former Chief Economist, IMF

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$2,482.00
Saldo BTC
0.19816807
Valor atual
$13,024.01
Mudança percentual
424.74%
My best guess is that in the long run, the technology will thrive, but that the price of bitcoin will collapse.

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23 de outubro de 2017 • $5,888.25

Al-Waleed Bin Talal bin Abdulaziz al Saud

Citigroup shareholder

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$2,468.00
Saldo BTC
0.19562193
Valor atual
$12,856.68
Mudança percentual
420.94%
I just don't believe in this bitcoin thing. I think it's just going to implode one day. I think this is Enron in the making.

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24 de abril de 2018 • $9,652.21

Bill Harris

Founder & CEO, Personal Capital; Former CEO of PayPal and Intuit

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$2,285.00
Saldo BTC
0.17603217
Valor atual
$11,569.20
Mudança percentual
406.31%
In my opinion, [Bitcoin’s] a colossal pump-and-dump scheme, the likes of which the world has never seen.

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28 de novembro de 2018 • $4,208.48

Robert C. Merton

Nobel Prize-winning Economist; Failed and bailed out co-founder, Long-Term Capital Management

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$2,067.00
Saldo BTC
0.14352002
Valor atual
$9,432.43
Mudança percentual
356.33%
The problem with bitcoin at the moment, despite Ohio, is just what its champions decry: It is not a government-controlled currency. And therefore, asks Merton, who is responsible for the value of our currency if tomorrow morning all the bitcoin screens go dark?

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24 de julho de 2019 • $9,792.79

Steven Mnuchin

United States Secretary of the Treasury

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$1,829.00
Saldo BTC
0.09463013
Valor atual
$6,219.29
Mudança percentual
240.04%
I won't be talking about Bitcoin in 10 years, I can assure you that. […] I would bet in even 5 or 6 years I'm no longer talking about Bitcoin as Treasury Secretary. […] I can assure you I will personally not be loaded up on Bitcoin.

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1 de janeiro de 2020 • $7,170.63

Tendayi Kapfidze

Chief Economist, LendingTree

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$1,668.00
Saldo BTC
0.07616463
Valor atual
$5,005.70
Mudança percentual
200.10%
“It’s a pyramid scheme,” LendingTree Chief Economist Tendayi Kapfidze tells Yahoo Finance. “You only make money based on people who enter after you. It has no real utility in the world.

“They’ve been trying to create a utility for it for ten years now. It’s a solution in search of a problem and it still hasn’t found a problem to solve.”

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12 de fevereiro de 2021 • $47,525.21

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Flaneur, or something like that

Compra diária
$1.00
Total investido
$1,260.00
Saldo BTC
0.03826798
Valor atual
$2,515.05
Mudança percentual
99.61%

Link do arquivo